Early detection of terrorist campaigns. General considerations, the pattern and main causes thereof

Abstract

Terrorism, by its destructive nature, even if it causes a relatively low number of human losses compared to other forms of violent conflicts, contributes significantly to their prolongation. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop new approaches to prevent this phenomenon. In the process of describing the concepts of terrorism, this article discusses a model for the early detection of terrorist campaigns, long- and medium-term premises (root and immediate causes), as well as short-term indicators, in order to identify the underlying structures that contribute to the implementation of terrorist campaigns. At almost every stage of their implementation, a transition to the use of other methods of combat is possible.